Markets decided to start off on a positive note today and orchestrated a drift higher as the summer doldrums seem to be kicking into high gear on this fine Monday. As earnings have taken a step back, Fed speakers have stepped forward. This morning began with the release of a NYT interview with NY Fed’s John Williams where the prominent takeaway was that while he sees the need to keep rates restrictive for some time, cuts may be warranted next year as inflation cools. A more hawkish-sounding B…

August is officially off to a bit of a wobbly start after conceding more than two percentage points of gains in its first week. One week certainly does not make a month, and surely we have not forgotten so quickly that we are coming off of three consecutive weeks of gains prior. However, despite the market’s better efforts to shake off the negative tone from the days preceding, Friday trading ultimately succumbed to the move lower across all major indices into the final bell. AMZN’s impressiv…

Call it a typical case of the ‘Mondaze’ as markets lacked much enthusiasm until the final 15 minutes of the session. With no obvious catalysts, markets saw a strong rally into the close backed by a large buy imbalance as traders marked their books for month-end. Energy was the standout performer as Crude remains well bid above $80 and Pharma sat on the opposing end under pressure today. Major US indices all ended in the green despite mixed performance on either side of the breakeven line throug…

Markets seem to be treading water and taking stock(…) as the focal point has shifted to earnings and averts from the broader macro / rate debate for a moment. US indices were mixed today with the Dow and S&P barely in the green, while the Nasdaq lagged into the red. The Dow stealing the spotlight from its Nasdaq peer after securing its 10th consecutive session of gains. Fun fact: a rare occasion that has only occurred nine other times dating all the way back to 1970! Not quite a typical sum…

The heat is on as the gains continue for Equities in lockstep with the rising temps into the dog days of summer in NYC. Another 12mo high for both the SPX closing above 4500 and NDX above 15,500 with positive breadth of ~70% on the S&P again today. To hammer home the debate on depth, look no further than the US Advance Decline lines clocking gains all along the market cap segments with the smid caps also doing their part to play catch-up to the big boys. Call it a back-to-back (and short-sig…

Risk-off-ISH is on! In what already felt like a vulnerable start to the week, yesterday’s hawkish tone from the Fed minutes has been followed up today with a rather souring ADP Employment print at more than double the market’s median expectations. As yields quickly reacted higher (for-longer…), sentiment fell in contrary. The 2yr acted in drastic fashion punching above 5% for most of the session and ending just barely below. Both the 10yr and 30yr are now above/at 4% as fears were re-ignited…

Equities have come a long way in 2023 with the S&P boasting mid-teens YTD gains and the Nasdaq doubling that tally in as much time. A healthy pullback, or dare I say pause… seems like a reasonable response given the distance travelled of late. As such, equities continued to take a breather for the third session in a row in their ultimate run higher as we digest what’s next from here. Underwhelming volume and turnover (-5-10% for major indexes) have also taken hold as the VIX continued its de…

Equities marched higher in today’s session after a lighter = better CPI print earlier this morning. Headline inflation fell to 4.0% in May vs 4.1% expected and 4.9% prior due in large part to declining energy prices. Core CPI (ex-food and energy) rose 0.4% which was inline with expectations and prior. And while it doesn’t seem enough to change the expectations for a hike tomorrow, we know that the core number is still too high. Consensus has centered around a pause for tomorrow’s rate decis…

Choppy trading ending lower on a quiet Monday had indexes with mixed performance throughout the day. The bias was higher to start, as fueled by softer ISM data in support of the Fed’s “skip” narrative leading into the June meeting while keeping options open for thereafter. Despite having entered the quiet period, the Fed team will get a look at CPI/PPI next week before their meeting, and that will keep traders on edge into the 14th. The S&P rallied towards a new 52-week high into midday (4305…

Some love lost in markets today as the S&P closed below 4200 for some month-end profit taking. The risk-off sentiment was initially sparked by a weaker China Manufacturing PMI number falling deeper into contractionary territory overnight. A hotter JOLTS Job Openings figure then added further downward pressure on shares mid-morning. With fresh, new evidence confirming that the imbalance of demand for workers is still outpacing the supply of available employees, the fight to cool persistent wa…