In the mid-August lull, when many families (and by association, investors) are on holiday, market action can be painfully scarce. However, today there was one major headline that got us excited and kept us engaged. “Rothschild and Co. is pleased to announce the completion of the merger of Redburn Ltd and Atlantic Equities.” Well, then. We were paying attention…..was it just us?!
After a healthy rebound yesterday, stocks were back in the red this morning, weighed down by a multitude of macro headlines and earnings disappointments. Around midday a few “buy the dippers” showed up but it was too late to rescue the day completely. That said, the selling never got that strenuous. The SPX and CCMP both finished below the line in tandem with yields, which also retreated throughout the day. With yields reversing course, despite a large issuance this week and a stronger 3yr auct…
Headwinds for equities remained present and accounted for today as yields pushed higher once again. The 30yr broached 4.3% and the 10yr spiked 10bps. Further, a handful of major corporate misses provoked fear in the hearts of investors who have been waiting for the other economic shoe to drop (Paypal -12% and Qualcomm -8.2%). The SPX and RTY underperformed the Dow and the Nasdaq, the DXY hovered around flat, and Brent rallied 2.8%, as Saudi Arabia said the 1m bpd voluntary cut will be extended…
Quite a reversal in equities today as the major indices fell, breaking the Dow’s historical 13-day winning streak. Yesterday, Powell’s mention of rate cuts before inflation returns to 2% was spun positively. Today, remaining concerns of reflation, w/ energy and ag commodities going higher, as well as a surprisingly stronger GDP number (though mainly driven by capex), turned that smile upside down for investors who noted that the combo of a still hot economy and 10y yields above 4% would put fur…
After yet another 12-month high yesterday by the SPX and CCMP, US indices opened higher again today and continued their ascent, with earnings season in full tilt. The Dow succeeded in bagging an 8-day winning streak, something not seen since 2019, but the CCMP was less sturdy, only eking out a gain. Still, the overall nature of the day still felt vigorous. The powerful combo of robust earnings, cooling inflation, the end of monetary tightening and firming economic growth have been the source of…
Put it down to positioning. All major indices went from bottom left to top right over the course of today, indicative of machines systematically walking things higher as we head into month/quarter end on Friday. There were some concerns early doors when Walgreens (-9.3%) issued weak guidance, but robust economic data dispelled any lingering worries. For example, Consumer Confidence rose to 109.7 from last month’s 102.7, and the Richmond Fed index improved to -7 from May’s -15. In addition, Hous…
There seemed to be a good deal going on behind the equity scenes this week. And although today was the end of the S&P’s winning streak, it was the longest streak since Nov ’21 (just 10 sessions between breaking above 4,200 & 4,400). Further, the Nikkei saw its 10th straight week of advances. Today stocks sprinted out of the gates but quickly ran out of steam. The moves were seemingly due to positioning, with the massive triple witch expiration seeing $4.2 trillion in contracts mature on the ope…
When Goldman reports panic buying (overall BUYS to SELLS at the 98th percentile), the CNN Fear and Greed Index reads “Extreme Greed”, investors are actively hedging “melt up” risk (Friday saw the largest notional SPX call volume ever) and tech is stretched to max extremes of overbought territory, is it time to SELL? Apparently, not. US stocks vacillated between gains and losses today, but ultimately finished the day in positive territory. The small cappers were the clear winners as the RTY was…
Modest inconsistencies in fund manager surveys today showed managers flocking to cash on one hand, but believing earnings will only shrink -0.8% on the other. The headline that impacted sentiment most was “65% of survey participants are now expecting a weaker economy, fading optimism for the strong China rebound and persistent recessionary worries.” That sounds less than stellar, and although markets closed lower, they still hung tight to the range we have been enduring for months.
Four(ish) hours of downside and only 1 hour to recover all of the losses. What inflation? What rising interest rates? Debt ceiling….? Still rangebound, but whatever. It felt bullish…