The View from 5th Avenue

The View at Two – 15 October 2020

Everyone Remain Calm… Apparently the S&P posting its first consecutive down days in a month was enough to ruffle some feathers, as US indices are lower once again on the heels of a somewhat ugly red day across the rest of the globe. With regard to the main narratives the market has been watching (stimulus, Covid, economic recovery, election) nothing has drastically changed, but that itself doesn’t bode well for a pre-election fiscal injection as the Nov 3 countdown clocks ticks and the virus situation continues to look incrementally worse in Europe. Still the damage in the US today remains limited (S&P only back to last Friday’s levels) and some profit taking can be excused when stocks are near their all-time highs in the middle of a pandemic-fueled recession. It’s premature to say this is the start of a real “wakeup call” as opposed to a pause for thought, and it’s precisely at these moments of doubt that FOMO is at its most potent. Banks are making a guest appearance near the top of the sector chart after taking an earnings season beating the last few days, along with its more successful cousin Financials, which have charted a smoother path by delivering the beats, today coming from Morgan Stanley (MS +1.1%) and Charles Schwab (SCHW + 3.6%). The Transport space remains a tug of war zone between red hot shipping/logistics players (JBHT +1.4%) and the airlines, weighed upon today by another depressing earnings report form United (UAL -4.4%). Pharma is worst performing; Vertex (VRTX -20%) is patient zero there after stopping development of a promising rare disease drug. The usual high flyers Software, Media, Tech are also lagging as the FANG endures some selling… but with indices pushing new highs on the day, it would only take a little buy the dip action in those names to sneak out a surprise green finish for the S&P…

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