View from 5th Avenue

The View at Two – 17th March, 2021

No Change… FOMC decision is out and of course rates remain unchanged near zero as does the current rate of asset purchases. Equities are applauding as the median dot plot still shows rates on hold through 2023 (though 7 members now see a 2023 hike vs 5 back in December) and Fed forecasts show core inflation right around their target for the next 3 years (aka anything higher is “transitory.”) The statement has also been tweaked to acknowledge that recent economic data has been more optimistic for the recovery. The S&P is trying to remain green though Treasury yields have bounced back to where they were pre-announcement (DXY falling too).  A good job of threading the needle of recovery vs inflation / tapering but we’ll see if that remains the case when Powell is done answering the coming barrage of inflation questions…

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