View from 5th Avenue

The View at Two – April 12th, 2021

“I Don’t Care if Mondays Blue” – The late day melt-up we saw Friday afternoon didn’t translate to today but it’s recovering from the lows earlier in the day, as a bit of ‘what comes next’ grips the market currently. A busy week ahead has volumes mimicking the anemic levels we got last week. Tomorrow brings PPI sibling CPI along with Chinese import/export data and most importantly, the banks kick off earnings season and a lack of guidance just won’t do at this stage. Sadly, today is largely uneventful as a result. In a reminder COVID and its after-effects will be with us for years to come, biological testing firm Luminex got bought out for $1.8bn and Microsoft made an even bigger splash, taking out AI firm Nuance for $19.7bn. UBER a big mover on the day after gross bookings last month were the highest in a year. In a bit of a contradiction, their delivery service was up more than 150% from a year earlier, highlighting the reopening trade vs new normal remains a tenuous one (see below). Meanwhile as a confab amongst Semiconductor CEOs is ongoing, Nvidia dropped a midday bombshell, announcing its doing to directly challenge Intel’ls central processing units. Broadly speaking, large-cap (and more specifically tech/retail) has served as a safety net and been winning out of late. On a down day for that crew, the small and mid-cap names along with those in the reflation space are doing little to minimize the lost ground they’ve seen over the last month. Certainly something to keep an eye on as earnings roll in; has the reflation trade run its course?

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