Markets are grasping at any piece of economic data to determine their trajectory for the day. After major indexes suffered the worst week of the year, they started this week out differently with both the SPX (+0.31%) and NDX (+0.74%) closing in the green. It was once again soft economic data that pushed the indexes higher as US durable goods orders were down 4.5 percent (est. -4%). In the face of “higher for longer” interest rates, traders are looking for any sign that could point to weakness i…

Economic data is not your financial assets friend and doesn’t look like it will be for the foreseeable future. PCE data has been on everyone’s radar since January CPI was released two weeks ago. To the Fed’s dismay, the data continues to disappoint. After a three-month sequential decline, core PCE YoY is back up to 4.7% (est. 4.3%) and MoM increased 0.6% (est. 0.4%). The consumer is strong, people have money and are willing to spend it. Personal spending jumped 1.8%, which is the largest increa…

February has been a month of repricing expectations on a few levels. As macro data has shown to be resilient, so has the Fed’s resolve, and investors have had to amend positions for a higher for longer trajectory. Treasuries have seen the most aggressive repositioning this month, as the 10-yr yield have moved to 3.88% from 3.42% when the FOMC last met (February 1st). Stocks continue to hold up however, even though they have tested some support levels this week. The genesis of the Streets rethin…

The market has zigged when many have expected it to zag – in 2023 terms that’s translated to the market ripping out of the gates to everyone’s surprise. And the economic data that’s accompanied it has, for much of the year, doubled up on said astonishment. Hopes for a better outcome than the extended inversions we’ve heard so much about would indicate were beginning to materialize. And they still very well may but cracks are beginning to emerge as the market goes from underestimating the Feds m…

A retreat in US markets today after returning from a long holiday weekend. To be honest, this downdraft feels like a welcomed moment of sanity- and perhaps the extra rest allowing further time/space for markets to digest and react to the current landscape we are navigating. As the shorter-term trend is now pointing, we took another break from fighting the Fed and surrendered to a higher-for-longer reality as markets fell lower. PMIs hitting the tape this morning and showing a robust global e…

This week has provided investors with some things to think about. The trajectory was never going to be diagonally higher after the 2022 performance, but rather a bumpy one that hopefully will end higher. That turbulence will also happen in economic data, as markets learned via the CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales. But even though all three surprised, equities still moved higher for the week (Nasdaq and Russell 2k), or only lost small (S&P 500). The strength here, is shrugging off the weakness in Trea…